Young Wise and WealthyYoung Wise. and Wealthy

10 · Topic

Crypto is a position size before it is an opinion.

10 min readTopic: Crypto

Key numbers

21MHard cap on the total supply of bitcoin, fixed in the code
1 to 5%Suggested maximum allocation for money you could watch go to zero
<$66kBitcoin price in early June 2026 after a roughly two-week drop
50 to 80%Drawdowns Bitcoin has lived through more than once

What Bitcoin actually is

Bitcoin is a shared ledger that thousands of computers keep in sync, with no bank or government issuing it. There is no CEO, no help desk, and no one who can print more. The supply is capped in the code at 21 million coins, and the rate of new coins drops on a fixed schedule until the last one is mined around the year 2140.

That fixed supply is the entire pitch. A central bank can create more dollars. No one can create a 22 millionth bitcoin without the agreement of the whole network, which will not happen. Believers call this digital gold. Skeptics point out that scarcity alone does not make something valuable, since plenty of scarce things are worth nothing. Both can be true at once, which is why this stays an argument and not a fact.

Thousands of other coins exist. Almost all of them are more speculative than Bitcoin, many are outright worthless, and a fresh batch launches every week. When this guide says crypto, treat Bitcoin as the baseline and everything else as a step up in risk.

Volatility is the feature, not a bug

Crypto moves in a way stocks almost never do. A broad stock index falling 20% in a year is called a bear market. Bitcoin has fallen 50% to 80% more than once and then gone on to new highs, and there is no rule that says it always recovers. In late May and early June 2026 it dropped from above $73,000 to under $66,000 in about two weeks, a roughly 10% slide that barely registered as news by crypto standards.

AssetTypical bad yearWorst drawdown on record
High-yield savings0%0%
S&P 500down 20%down about 55%
Bitcoindown 30% to 50%down about 80%

The number that matters is the one you would actually live through. If a position dropping 80% would force you to sell, you sized it wrong before the drop ever happened. The price chart is not your problem. Your reaction to it is.

Position size is the first decision

Pick the dollar amount you could watch go to zero without it touching your rent, your emergency fund, or your retirement. That number, divided by your total portfolio, is your allocation. For most people it works out to 1% to 5%.

Here is why the cap protects you. Say you have $20,000 invested and you put $1,000 into crypto, a 5% position. If it falls 80%, you are down $800, which is 4% of the portfolio. Annoying, survivable. Now run the same 80% drop on a person who put in $10,000, half their money. They are down $8,000 and far more likely to panic and sell at the bottom.

AllocationOn a $20,000 portfolioLoss in an 80% dropHit to total portfolio
1%$200$1600.8%
5%$1,000$8004%
50%$10,000$8,00040%

Notice the size of the bet decided the outcome, not the price of the coin. That is the whole point of leading with position size.

Custody: not your keys, not your coins

When you buy crypto on an exchange, the exchange usually holds the coins for you. What you own is a balance on their books, which is a promise to give you the coins back when you ask. That promise is only as strong as the company behind it.

FTX customers learned this in 2022. They saw a Bitcoin balance in their accounts and believed they owned Bitcoin. FTX was quietly spending customer funds, ran out of money, and filed for bankruptcy. Customers turned into creditors waiting years to recover cents on the dollar. The coins they thought they held were never really theirs to control.

Self-custody is the other path. You hold the private keys yourself, usually in a hardware wallet, and no company can freeze, lose, or spend your coins. The trade is that the responsibility is fully yours. Lose the keys or the recovery phrase and the coins are gone forever, with no password reset and no support line.

If you hold coins, write down your recovery phrase

A self-custody wallet gives you a list of 12 or 24 words. Those words are the wallet. Write them on paper, store them somewhere safe and private, and never type them into a website or share them with anyone. Anyone who has the phrase has the money, and screenshots in your photo roll are a common way people get drained.

Taxes: the IRS calls it property

The IRS treats crypto as property, so the tax rules look like the rules for selling a stock, not the rules for spending cash. Every sale, every purchase made with crypto, and every trade of one coin for another is a taxable event. You can owe capital gains tax even if you never moved a dollar to your bank.

ActionTaxable?
Buying crypto with dollarsNo
Moving coins between your own walletsNo
Selling crypto for dollarsYes, capital gain or loss
Trading one coin for anotherYes, counts as a sale
Buying a coffee with cryptoYes, counts as a sale

Hold for more than a year and gains get the lower long-term capital gains rate. Sell within a year and the gain is taxed as ordinary income at your normal bracket. One quirk works in your favor today: the wash-sale rule that blocks stock investors from selling at a loss and rebuying right away does not apply to crypto as property right now. That gap may close, so do not build a plan around it lasting.

Speculating, investing, and how to buy

Speculating is betting on the price over days or weeks. Investing is buying an asset you expect to hold for years. Most people who lose money in crypto were speculating while telling themselves they were investing.

If you decide to buy, dollar-cost averaging keeps you out of the worst timing mistakes. You put a fixed amount in on a fixed schedule, say $50 on the first of every month, no matter the price. Some months you buy high, some months you buy low, and you never have to guess the top or the bottom. The schedule makes the decision for you, which removes the moment you would have made it worse.

Buying and holding stays simple on the tax side too. Until you sell, you owe nothing, so a long hold can sit untaxed for years while a frequent trader racks up a taxable event on every move.

Scams, rug pulls, and the things that go to zero

Crypto runs without a referee, so the protections you get with a bank or a broker are mostly absent. No chargebacks, no fraud department, no one to call. That freedom is real, and it is also why the space attracts scams at a rate nothing else matches.

A rug pull is the classic version. A team launches a new token, hypes it, watches the price climb as people pile in, then sells everything they hold and vanishes, leaving buyers with a coin worth nothing. Pump-and-dumps work the same way with a group coordinating the hype. The warning signs repeat: guaranteed returns, pressure to buy now, anonymous teams, a celebrity push, and a chart that only goes up.

Two rules cover most of it. Nobody legitimate will ask for your recovery phrase or send you free coins to buy in. And if a return sounds too good to be true in any other part of your financial life, it is just as fake here.

The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it's different.John Templeton

Common mistakes

  • 01Sizing the bet by conviction instead of survivability. If a coin going to zero would change your rent or your retirement, you own too much. Cap it at 1% to 5% of the portfolio.
  • 02Leaving coins on an exchange you do not control. FTX customers in 2022 thought they owned Bitcoin and actually owned a claim against a company that was spending it. Not your keys, not your coins.
  • 03Forgetting that every trade is a taxable event. Swapping Bitcoin for another coin is a sale in the eyes of the IRS, so you can owe tax even though you never touched a dollar.
  • 04Chasing a coin after a 200% run. Buying the green candle is how most people end up holding the 50% to 80% drawdown that tends to follow.
  • 05Trusting a token because it has a slick site and a famous name attached. Rug pulls and pump-and-dumps are built to look legitimate for exactly as long as it takes to take your money.

FAQ

How much crypto should I own?+

An amount that going to zero would not change your life. For most people that lands somewhere in the 1% to 5% of net worth range. The point of the cap is that you can hold through a 70% drop without selling at the bottom or losing sleep.

What does 'not your keys, not your coins' mean?+

If your coins sit on an exchange, the exchange holds the private keys and you hold a promise. That promise is only as good as the company. FTX held customer coins, spent them, and collapsed in 2022, and customers became creditors in a bankruptcy. Self-custody means you hold the keys yourself and carry the full responsibility for not losing them.

Do I owe taxes if I never cash out to dollars?+

Often yes. The IRS treats crypto as property, so selling it, spending it, or trading one coin for another all count as taxable events. Trading Bitcoin for another token can trigger a capital gain even though no dollars hit your bank. Buying and holding is not taxable, and neither is moving coins between your own wallets.

Is crypto an investment or a gamble?+

It depends on how you treat it. Buying a fixed dollar amount on a schedule and holding for years is closer to investing. Jumping between coins on price moves is speculation, and the odds favor the house. Either way, size it as money you can afford to lose.

Further reading

Titles link to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases at no extra cost to you, and it never changes what we recommend. See our disclosure.

  • The Bitcoin Standard

    by Saifedean Ammous

    The strongest version of the bull case for fixed-supply money. Read it to understand what believers actually believe, then weigh it against the risks.

  • Digital Gold

    by Nathaniel Popper

    A reported history of Bitcoin's first decade, from cypherpunks to exchanges. The clearest account of how fragile early custody really was.

  • The Basics of Bitcoins and Blockchains

    by Antony Lewis

    A plain-English explainer of how the technology works without the hype. The chapter on wallets and keys is the one to read before you buy anything.

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