Modeling03
LBO basics
Read firstDebt schedules and circularity. Valuation without accounting is memorization.
Buy a company mostly with borrowed money, use the company's own cash flow to repay the borrowing, sell it a few years later. The return comes from three places, only two of which anyone controls, and the is the tool that tells you which one you actually relied on.
Sources and uses
The table that opens every buyout. Where the money comes from on one side, what it pays for on the other, and the two columns are equal by construction. The sponsor equity line is usually the plug.
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Debt raised (5.0x EBITDA) | 1,000 |
| Sponsor equity | 845 |
| Total sources | 1,845 |
| Purchase enterprise value (9.0x) | 1,800 |
| Transaction fees (2.5%) | 45 |
| Total uses | 1,845 |
$845M of equity buys a $1,800M business. That ratio is the whole idea, and it works in both directions.
The returns bridge
Where the equity gain came from. Four buckets that sum exactly to the total, because the attribution is derived rather than plugged.
The algebra behind the bridge
What happens with no growth at all
Set growth to zero, change nothing else, and the same deal still returns 1.05x and 0.9%. The business did not improve by a dollar. All of it came from $86Mof debt repaid with the company's own cash.
That is the mechanism, stripped of narrative. Leverage plus time plus cash generation produces an equity return whether or not anything gets better. It also explains why the industry is so sensitive to the : at a much higher interest rate the same business repays much less, and the deleveraging bucket shrinks.
Build one
IRR against MoIC
| MoIC | Years | IRR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fast and smaller | 2.2x | 3 | 30.1% |
| Slow and larger | 3.0x | 7 | 17.0% |
| Same money, faster | 3.0x | 5 | 24.6% |
ignores time completely. is time-sensitive and assumes you can reinvest at the same rate, which a fund often cannot. Funds quote both because each hides what the other reveals.
Test yourself
01Why does leverage increase equity returns?
Because the enterprise value grows on the whole business while the debt is fixed in nominal terms, so every dollar of appreciation and every dollar of debt repaid accrues to a smaller equity base. The follow-up is what happens when the business underperforms, and the answer is the same mechanism in reverse: the loss lands entirely on the equity, and a 20% fall in enterprise value on a 5x levered deal can wipe out most of the equity check.
02What makes a good LBO candidate?
Predictable cash flow above everything else, because the debt service is contractual. Then low capital intensity so cash converts, a defensible market position, assets that can be pledged, and a credible exit. Cyclical, capital-hungry, or fast-changing businesses are poor candidates regardless of how cheap they look, because the debt does not care what year of the cycle it is.
03A 3.0x over seven years or a 2.2x over three?
The 2.2x, on IRR. 3.0^(1/7) - 1 is 17.0% a year; 2.2^(1/3) - 1 is 30.1%. The 3.0x returns more money and takes more than twice as long to do it. Which you prefer depends on whether you can redeploy the capital, which is exactly why a fund quotes both figures and why neither alone is enough.
A tutor that knows this lesson. It asks before it explains, and it will not tell you what to do with your own money.
Every figure in this lesson that names a company comes from Target Corporation's Form 10-K for Fiscal 2025, the year ended 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-11. Educational material, not investment advice.
